Don't fall in love with Melky
WANGERYRight up until the Nelson Cruz home run, Wang was having an uneven start, but one which should be viewed as a success. He got eight out groundouts against just one fly out. He walked only one, and uncharacteristically struck out five batters in 4.2 innings. That he allowed three doubles and a homer speaks to his continuing problem of maintaining a consistent sinker, something that is going to express itself more frequently over 70 or 80 pitches than it would in 20 or 30 from the bullpen. It should also be kept in mind that he was pitching against a very potent offense, even with Josh Hamilton on the DL. All in all, there was enough here to earn him at least another start.
THE BURNETT SUSPENSION
Pathetic. MLB lord of discipline Bob Watson played in the Majors for almost 20 years. He understands the ethos of the sport having lived it, and yet it is very difficult to believe that he issued A.J. Burnett's suspension having actually viewed the video of the game. Vincente Padilla, who always has high hit batter numbers, drilled Mark Teixeira twice. In throwing up and in to Nelson Cruz, Burnett was sending the same kind of message that pitchers have been sending on behalf of their teammates for over 100 years. There was no intent to injure, he didn't throw behind Cruz, which would have been truly dangerous--in contrast, Teixeira was hit up and in and also in the buttocks, which by definition are behind. To suspend Burnett at all is a bit ridiculous, but to suspend him without offering anything more than a fine to Padilla is simply unjust.
MELKY: REIGNITED/SWISHER/NADY
In his 20 games prior to Thursday, when he hit his big eighth-inning home run, Melky Cabrerahad hit .282/.297/.380. He's been valuable to the Yankees, but he's far too mutable to be given an everyday role. Continuing a career-long pattern, he still can't hit lefties. His current .282/.333/.385 against them is as well as he's done and represents a huge improvement and yet is still far from being a plus, as the average right-handed hitter has .346/.433 on-base/slugging against southpaws. Joe Girardi has done a fine job mixing Cabrera with Brett Gardner, who also has his limitations, and together the two have made up a pretty good center fielder, batting a combined .297/.363/.432. The average Major League center fielder is hitting .264/.339/.421. Cabrera has also started eight games in right field and five in left. Given his defensive skills (Thursday's ill-considered ninth-inning dive notwithstanding) and his occasional offense, something like what he's doing now, a 75 percent starting role mixed with substitutions for others, is the perfect role for him. Falling in love again would be a mistake... At some point, Austin Jackson is going to crowd the picture as well, and then the Yankees will have some interesting decisions to make, but not necessarily centered around the exclusion of Cabrera, assuming he's viewed as a 350-400 at-bat a year player and not a 500 and up guy. In the nearer future, Xavier Nady will return and start actively punishing the Yankees. Nick Swisher has been streaky and somewhat odd--he's batting .305/.389/.695 on the road, but only .147/.356/.235 at Yankee Stadium, and that includes today's two-hit performance. Those home rates are almost certain to change, though it is worth noting that Swisher had a weird home/road bifurcation last year as well, going into deep freeze away from Chicago. What is certain is that his .356 home OBP at home will only be exceeded by Nady if he hits .310 or better.
TO THE MATS WITH READER COMMENTS
Here's another attempt at education, based on yesterday's main entry, 'cause even when I praise Derek Jeter someone rips me:
Steve,
You guys in the media want to deride Derek Jeter because he will be thirty five years old. You sight his declining productivity. Do your research! 2005 202 hits .309 average, 2006 214 hits .343 average, 2007 206 hits .322 average and 2008 (with an injured hand from being hit by Daniel Cabrera) 179 hits .300 average. Give the guy a break!-- stankucharski23
Stan, I'm all about the research, but not in the way you want me to do it, which would be overly and deceivingly selective. Batting average and hit totals do not provide an accurate picture of offense. In 1928, Sam Rice of the Washington Senators batted .328 and made 202 hits. That same year, Babe Ruth hit only .323 and made 173 hits. An extremely superficial analysis would lead one to believe that Rice had the better year, but this leaves out the key aspects of each player's offense, getting on base and hitting with power. Remember, batting average doesn't tell us how often a player gets on base or how many extra bases he gets when he does. Rice, a fine player and a Hall of Famer, drew 49 walks and hit two home runs, so his on-base percentage was .379 and his slugging percentage was .438. Ruth drew a league-leading 137 walks and also led the league in home runs with 54, so his OBP was .463 and his slugging percentage was .772. The Babe was responsible for generating about 173 runs of offense that year, Rice only 104. Both had very good years, but Ruth was decisively better even though he trailed Rice in the two categories we first looked at.
You can play the same game with Jeter's career, comparing one season to another. While Jeter's 2005 through 2007 were very good, if you look at the components of those seasons, there is a visible decline in his production. Considering only Jeter's new-millennium seasons, his power peaked in 2004, then slid down gradually in each of the following four seasons, bottoming out with last year's .408 slugging percentage. Now, you may be right that some of last year's power outage was a result of the Daniel Cabrera-inflicted injury he suffered, but we also have to acknowledge some other truths, which is that over time, Jeter has become more of a ground ball hitter, which automatically limits his power potential. Second, this season's power return seems to owe a lot to the new Yankee Stadium, and while Jeter has hit well overall, we may have a distorted view of this aspect of his game. Additionally, until this year, Jeter's walks had also dropped off. Jeter has drawn walks in nine percent of his plate appearances over the course of his career, but in 2007 and 2008 the percentage was just under eight. Finally, in another "until this year" development, over the last two years his stolen attempts had dried up, his success percentage had dropped, and in general he looked far slower than he had in his youth. Again, he seems to have been reinvigorated this year.
In short, Stan, when "we in the media" cite Jeter's declining offense and his age, it is because his offense had declined going into this season, and he's getting old as ballplayers go. It's not personal. It's not about wanting to tear Jeter down--I grew up watching Bobby Meacham try to play short for the Yankees; to me, Derek Jeter is an ongoing miracle--it's about doing our job, which is to report and analyze what's happening with honesty and accuracy.

I know it must really annoy a lot of fan and writers to see Melky actually produce. Yes, the audacity of this guy - why doesn't he just accept he's a forth outfielder and start playing like one. Well I hope he keeps on misbehaving and annoying the heck out of everyone every time he gets a clutch hit or make a big defensive play.
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Steve, your analysis is very in-depth, however, no one ever compared Jeter to Ruth. Jeter is adapting now to his older age, something that the media never likes to say. The amount of pitches per at bat he is seeing this year is a testament to that. His stolen bases are up because Girardi wants to push the envelope at all times. Your point about Jeter's power is completely invalid. His power is there only because of Yankee Stadium. Umm, ok. Yea, he plays at Yankee Stadium so his power is there. Unless MLB shuts down Yankee Stadium (Even Bob Watson's unbelievable bias against the Yankees can't go that far) Jeter will HAVE power.
As for Melky, can you just be fair for once and say you did not give this KID, yes, emphasis on KID, enough time to have an adequate amount of ABs. He has not hit his prime yet and you have changed your stance on him already this year. Before the season you said he was a marginal major leaguer, now you are saying he is not quite an everyday player but better than a utility guy. The Yankees will have have tough decisions when Austin Jackson is ready, but that doesn't look like it will be this year. His strikeouts are still too high and his power is not existent. Instead, he is getting acclimated to AAA pitching and is batting around .350. Some are questioning if Jackson will ever develop the 25 HR power that ppl were predicting for him. If he doesn't get up there, that will leave the Yankees having to trade either Gardner, Cabrera or Jackson, because they are way to similar in output and style of play. Sure, the outfield defense would be great with tracking balls down but one of them would have a weak arm and you might pray each season to get 30 HRs from ALL THREE COMBINED!.
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Steve,
I have seen ninety percent of Derek Jeter's games with the Yankees. He has always been a ground ball out. He might actually lead the MLB in that category, so that artgument has little relevance to your claim that age has eroded his power. He has been a connsumate player. He has adapted to different roles as a hitter. My point was not to knock you, but to point out that that we all age and our physical skills erode with time and that his productivity reflects his decline. Not so. Do you know when Jeter has gotten his hits? Has he been a clutch performer? Statistics aside I would hope that you would want most players to take the approach to the game that Jeter has. Find someone else to question.
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Steve,
Never have a battle of wits with an unarmed man, it's patently unfair.
Keep up the great work, I love the blog!
-Charlie
http://nationalsreview.wordpress.com
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I generally agree with Steve here, but there is not a "visible decline in his production" from 2005 to 2007. 2006 was the second-best year of his career, after 1999. Jeter is a bit strange, in that he seems to have the ability to draw walks, but sometimes just doesn't do it. I really think that batting leadoff consistently helps him, because he doesn't get into the whole sacrifice-bunt-or-put-the-ball-in-play-to-move-the-runner mentality. That's just conjecture, as his career leadoff rates aren't all that different from his overall rates, but i seem to remember the last time he had extended time in the leadoff role, he seemed to draw walks more regularly. So i actually thin that there's an excellent chance that Jeter could find new life in his bat while in the leadoff role, because it's not as though he can't be selective. I think when he bats second, he just thinks that's not his role. It's kind of strange, but that's the type of player Jeter is; he will do what he thinks is best for the team, even when (in the case where he's less selective) he's mistaken.
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I love Derik Jeter as much as any true Yankee fan and I know he comes through for us year after year, but how come his statistics for hitting into double playes is never talked about or recorded.
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"Xavier Nady will return and start actively punishing the Yankees"???!!?? It's unbelievable that you still have the same Swisher the Swashbuckler / Nady the Nadir view of the world after a month where the only thing Swisher could make happen was a 3-day growth. Fact is, they're a toss-up. Nady is steady and is hitting a little over his career .280 average. Swisher runs hot and cold and is hitting a little above his career .244 average and throws a mean shaving cream pie.
I know you love OBP as the ultimate stat, but obviously a walk is not as valuable as a hit. Runners often score from 2nd or go 1st to 3rd on a single, fielders make throwing errors on those plays that provide additional bases. I'm not underestimating OBP but until it counts a walk as less than a single in the same way that a double is worth more than a single in slugging or OPS then it is not a fully useful stat.
Steve, bring some balance to this Swisher/Nady thing. They're both decent, non-star level players. It's only early June and we've already seen Swisher from both sides now, from up and down and still somehow, it's Nick's illusions you recall. You really don't know Nick (or X) at all. (Sorry for the extended Joni Mitchell reference... I tried to stop myself.)
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Stan is more no arms than unarmed. And yet he comes for more.
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