Not just Joe's fault
ONE OF THE MORE FRUSTRATING POSTSEASON LOSSES EVER
As far as my lifetime goes, I'd put it up there with Game 4 of the 2003 World Series, when Joe Torre left Mariano Rivera so Jeff Weaver could pitch, and the weird Game 6 of the 1981 World Series, when Bob Lemon was required by His Master's Voice to pinch-hit for starting pitcher Tommy John in the fourth inning of a 1-1 tie.
I actually complimented Joe Girardi on his decisions in Game 2 (with one important caveat, the use of Freddy Guzman). In Game 3 he was thinking both too hard and not enough at the same time. He's running relievers in and out of the game as if he's obligated to use them all (except for the Scarlet Gaudin, whose punishment, worthy of Greek myth, is to be always ready for an emergency that never comes).
In Game 2, the rationale was understandable, or you could convince yourself that it was. In Game 3, that wasn't the case.
I'm not talking solely about the unmotivated removal of David Robertson for Alfredo Aceves in the 11th inning (I hedge on the odd change from Damaso Marte to Phil Coke for consecutive batters split over two innings because I am wondering if Marte's many injuries mean the Yankees can't get him up more than once), but that's the main thing. There should be a very basic rule observed in baseball: When you have a pitcher who strikes out 13 batters per nine innings, you leave him in until there's a pressing reason to take him out -- like three consecutive home runs or a giant meteor splashing down into the Hudson River.
Robertson, who had the highest strikeout rate in Yankees history for a pitcher with 40 or more innings pitched (passing Ryne Duren's 12.3 in 1960) has had occasional control problems, but they wouldn't have been an issue against the impatient Howie Kendrick in any case. He has had something of a reverse split in his career to date but (1) Girardi doesn't use him as if he were a left-hander, (2) his numbers against right-handers are fine, (3) Aceves also had a reverse split this year, and (4) while Aceves struck out a fifth of right-handed batters he faced, Robertston K'd a third of them.
During a National League game in the Division Series round, my Baseball Prospectus colleague Joe Sheehan wrote of a manager working his way through the bullpen trying to find the weakest link. That's what Girardi did today, and it cost the Yankees. It should also be noted that the decision to carry Freddy Guzman again cost the Yankees as Girardi rapidly lost roster flexibility as the game went on.
Now, it wasn't ALL Joe; by my count, Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera stranded a number of baserunners roughly equivalent to the population of Teaneck, N.J. Swisher has been particularly disappointing; he's struck out nine times in 23 postseason at-bats, which works out to something like 195 strikeouts in a 500-at-bat season. He's so far off his game that he's only taken one walk. It's yet another example of Swisher being an excitable boy, but in ways that are counterproductive for him and the team.
Cano had two hits but continued to fail with runners on. Alex Rodriguez is paid the biggest bucks, while Cano is paid, well, lesser big bucks, but he deserves some of the opprobrium that Rodriguez has unfairly received in the past for not being clutch. He finished the regular season with a career record of .256/.291/.398 with runners in scoring position (868 plate appearances) a practice he's carried into the postseason. As for Cabrera, he stranded seven runners and has yet to drive in a run in six postseason games.
We'll see what CC Sabathia does to rectify this state of affairs tonight in Game 4. Given what is necessary, if he pulls it off, Carsten Charles may have to change his name to "Atlas."
As far as my lifetime goes, I'd put it up there with Game 4 of the 2003 World Series, when Joe Torre left Mariano Rivera so Jeff Weaver could pitch, and the weird Game 6 of the 1981 World Series, when Bob Lemon was required by His Master's Voice to pinch-hit for starting pitcher Tommy John in the fourth inning of a 1-1 tie.
I actually complimented Joe Girardi on his decisions in Game 2 (with one important caveat, the use of Freddy Guzman). In Game 3 he was thinking both too hard and not enough at the same time. He's running relievers in and out of the game as if he's obligated to use them all (except for the Scarlet Gaudin, whose punishment, worthy of Greek myth, is to be always ready for an emergency that never comes). In Game 2, the rationale was understandable, or you could convince yourself that it was. In Game 3, that wasn't the case.
I'm not talking solely about the unmotivated removal of David Robertson for Alfredo Aceves in the 11th inning (I hedge on the odd change from Damaso Marte to Phil Coke for consecutive batters split over two innings because I am wondering if Marte's many injuries mean the Yankees can't get him up more than once), but that's the main thing. There should be a very basic rule observed in baseball: When you have a pitcher who strikes out 13 batters per nine innings, you leave him in until there's a pressing reason to take him out -- like three consecutive home runs or a giant meteor splashing down into the Hudson River.
Robertson, who had the highest strikeout rate in Yankees history for a pitcher with 40 or more innings pitched (passing Ryne Duren's 12.3 in 1960) has had occasional control problems, but they wouldn't have been an issue against the impatient Howie Kendrick in any case. He has had something of a reverse split in his career to date but (1) Girardi doesn't use him as if he were a left-hander, (2) his numbers against right-handers are fine, (3) Aceves also had a reverse split this year, and (4) while Aceves struck out a fifth of right-handed batters he faced, Robertston K'd a third of them.
During a National League game in the Division Series round, my Baseball Prospectus colleague Joe Sheehan wrote of a manager working his way through the bullpen trying to find the weakest link. That's what Girardi did today, and it cost the Yankees. It should also be noted that the decision to carry Freddy Guzman again cost the Yankees as Girardi rapidly lost roster flexibility as the game went on.
Now, it wasn't ALL Joe; by my count, Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera stranded a number of baserunners roughly equivalent to the population of Teaneck, N.J. Swisher has been particularly disappointing; he's struck out nine times in 23 postseason at-bats, which works out to something like 195 strikeouts in a 500-at-bat season. He's so far off his game that he's only taken one walk. It's yet another example of Swisher being an excitable boy, but in ways that are counterproductive for him and the team.
Cano had two hits but continued to fail with runners on. Alex Rodriguez is paid the biggest bucks, while Cano is paid, well, lesser big bucks, but he deserves some of the opprobrium that Rodriguez has unfairly received in the past for not being clutch. He finished the regular season with a career record of .256/.291/.398 with runners in scoring position (868 plate appearances) a practice he's carried into the postseason. As for Cabrera, he stranded seven runners and has yet to drive in a run in six postseason games.
We'll see what CC Sabathia does to rectify this state of affairs tonight in Game 4. Given what is necessary, if he pulls it off, Carsten Charles may have to change his name to "Atlas."
Yes - the 3 headed monster of Cano, Swish & Melky are killing us...esp Swish - leaving a man on 3rd - TWICE !! - w/ less than 2 out. Lest we not forget JOBA: Triple - sac fly - double. Nice job. Did anyone notice how MEEK the at bats were in the 9th, 10th and 11th ? Pulling outside pitches (Cano) and grounding out weakly or flailing at breaking stuff in the dirt. Pitiful. Seems like we were looking for solo home run # 5. NOT THE WAY TO WIN !!! Gardner needed to be in last night's starting lineup...Melky needs a game on the bench to regroup.
All things considered, even though we could have and should have won that game, it was only the first post-season loss. If we win win Game 4, we'll still be in excellent shape. Let's hope the big man can do it again !!
Report any abuse or spam
Girardi made a mistake that most current managers make today - they look at pitcher-batter matchups but fail to consider that those statistics are based on many (or in some cases not many) instances. Each situation that contributes to the statistic is different and one of the most important differences is how well the pitcher is performing that day. Some days (or even most days) the pitcher may be sharp - his curveball is really biting and his command is right on. Other days, things may not be working so well. Whenever you bring in a new pitcher you're running the risk that this is one of those days that he doesn't have his best stuff and/or command. What is the probability that on any given day a particular pitcher will not have his good stuff? Is it 10%, 25%, 50%? It obviously depends on the pitcher. (Are there statistics on this for relief pitchers?) What this suggests is that if the current pitcher is doing well and appears have his stuff, you are taking a big risk in bringing in a new pitcher just because statistics indicate he matches up better. I've always thought that it is not worth the risk to replace a pitcher who is pitching well, except in unusual circumstances.
Report any abuse or spam
As far as signing Figgins, maybe not, but either way Matsui/Damon should be gone, we can go after Matt Holliday or even trade for a hitting leftfielder. Now Girardi needs to relax, hide the stat book and actually look at the game, I mean he was a catcher so he knows when something is working and when something is not, and not for nothing where's the benchcoach, shouldn't he be suggesting things in Girardi's ear? As far as Cano/Swish/Melky either talk to these guys to go the other way or since Posada has a big mouth use him to get to these guys to WAKE UP! Also Girardi should've told Posada to stop asking for so many fastballs, especially to Vlad, I think the pitcher could balk and he'd still swing. Maybe Girardi should just take a seat, sip some green tea (like somebody we know) and watch the game. Next round and yes we'll get there either bring Hinske or Duncan we need a big bat on the bench.
Report any abuse or spam
i think for tonight game swish&melk have to go to the bench let jerry hairston&bret gardner take ther place in the line it can't be worst
Report any abuse or spam
You are right, it's not just Joe's fault. Aceves deserves some blame. When Girardi came out and made the move I immediately thought it was stupid, actually about 10 seconds before the mvoe I was thinking D-Rob could go 2 innings. But with 2 outs and nobody on Aceves has to get out of that inning.
http://www.bronxbaseballdaily.com
Report any abuse or spam
Yes, the bottom third of the order stunk up the joint, but keep in mind, this is the postseason, where it's not unusual to see players slump. They've been experiencing it on the other side, too. Abreu started the ALCS 0-11, remember?
A manager can't slump, and therefore has no excuse to mismanage. Girardi's move to replace Robertson on the mound is simply indefensible. The difference in right-handed BAA between the two pitchers is 9 points. Yes, Aceves has faced more right-handers but, as Steve points out above, Robertson strikes them out at a significantly better clip.
If nothing else, when you're running out of pitchers, you want to squeeze as many outs of your pitchers as possible.
Report any abuse or spam
How about the fact that he used Gardner to pinch run for Matsui instead of Guzman, putting his best defensive outfielder in the DH slot?
And then he pinch hits Hairston for Gardner, eventhough Gardner hits lefties better (.781 OPS vs. .741 OPS)
Report any abuse or spam
Sadly, Girardi appears to be in over his head here. For all intents and purposes, he handed Game 2 to the Angels. They simply proved too inept, especially in the 11th inning, to take advantage of the gift. The roster addition of Guzman with the subtraction of Hinske has cost them dearly, especially with Swish having gone utterly ineffective at the plate. It's almost as if his rationale is "well, they run, so we should run". But right now, it looks as if the turning point of this series is Girardi's visit to the mound before Vlad's home run. I wonder if that was a distraction that Andy could have done without. After the ensuing homer, roles reversed. It was the Yanks playing on their heels and the Angels knowing that they'd pull this one out. Of course, the move to Aceves was Grady Little territory. Even though the move was the opposite of Little's, it was equally ridiculously ill-thought, with the same result. In Girardi's case, of course, it's his seeming need to be involved in everything without the temperament that would allow him to simply let his players do what they do better than anyone - play.
The unfortunate thing about this is that the best team in baseball, a team that could well have swept this series, is in a position where they really do have to win tonight. The Yanks are a far better team than LA (and LA's a damn good team, make no mistake about that). Problem is the Yankees are dealing with not just the Angels and Mike Scioscia. They're dealing with Joe Girardi. And Girardi hasn't given the slightest indication that he won't repeateldy do precisely the same things that have already failed twice.
Report any abuse or spam
I'd be interested in learning what Girardi said to Pettitte. Whatever it was that was said, the pitch itself was terrible, especially considering Juan Rivera, who is hitting .080 or something was due next.
Report any abuse or spam