More defense on my Jeter stance

jeter_320_030209.jpgJETER III

After I got back from the Yogi Berra Museum on Sunday evening, just ahead of the big storm, I checked out the latest comment thread here and read this from notajediyet7:


I enjoyed the session at the Yogi Berra museum. You were the best in your row. As a Yankee fan, I felt a Pilgrim in an unholy land as Sean Connery said to Harrison Ford in Last Crusade. I thought the panel was sponsored by the Wilpons or the Kill the Evil empire society from Beantown.


There is plenty of baseball left in Derek Jeter. His paint is not peeling. He had a monster start after the last baseball classic. I expect another one. Derek will deliver. This is America. You are entitled to your opinion, but Derek Jeter will go out a Yankee. Be it as a DH or a shortstop. Nothing was better than watching Don Mattingly regain killer form in the 1985 playoffs.


Sports are more than about statistics, It is about heart and love of the game. Jeter is the Yankees, warts and all. So he can’t go to his left, Stop the world. So he is slowing down. Start a movement. He can teach the Yankee way until they pry the bat from his hands and Joe Torre, the right man in the right place at the right time, definitely belongs in the Hall Of Fame. I thank you. The panel was informative and interesting, but I felt I was in Fenway not Yogi Berra.


Apparently, if you say that Jeter is aging that makes you a Red Sox fan. This is, of course, like saying if you question the government you’re anti-American. Last I checked, the team is the New York Yankees, not the New York Jeters, and making the inarguable observation that Jeter will be 37 years old in 2011 is not equivalent to disloyalty.


I have often said that the reason this feature was titled the Pinstriped Bible is that the real Bible is an argument about how to live your life in a moral way and the Pinstriped Bible is an argument about winning baseball. That means making every effort to be objective, regardless of what team or players I rooted for when I was a lad.

To the credit of the three organizations that have played host to the Pinstriped Bible in the past, YES, MLB.com, and the Yankees themselves, none have asked me to be anything less than that. If that means making unpopular but commonsense arguments about the impact of a player’s aging (and three years from now) on the team’s fortunes, so be it. You can get boosterism anywhere.

Modified from the script of Any Given Sunday, it fits right here with Derek Jeter:”


Do I need to remind you he helped build this franchise, which you benefited from? That he’s a hero to the working people of New York, and one of the greatest pressure players to ever play the game. You don’t just cut a man like Derek Jeter.”


Hopefully some of you (and you, Steve) can appreciate that.


Of course I appreciate it. This current discussion springs forth from my expression of that appreciation. However, the sentiment expressed here is complete and utter hogwash. It’s akin to saying, “He was a great soldier. He helped us win many a battle. Now that he’s dead is not the time to stop depending on him.”

Just to clarify, Jeter isn’t dead and he’s not done, but we’ve been talking about what happens after 2010, not about today (not that today is a sure thing either). The question remains: What is your greatest priority? Seeing the team win, or seeing an aging player do an increasingly vague approximation of the things he did well ten years earlier? Those that choose the latter are the ones guilty of disloyalty, both to the team and to the player. The worst thing that can happen to a self-aware performer like Jeter is to receive applause for something that was previously beneath him. Lou Gehrig understood this, which is why he asked out of the lineup when teammates began congratulating him for making routine plays.

What’s strange to me about this entire discussion is that otherwise knowledgeable baseball fans are bent out of joint by a simple discussion of a post-Jeter world, as if such a discussion were optional and merely wishing that Jeter would be good through his late 30s and into his 40s or 50s or 90s would make it so. I can imagine a conversation with these denial-ists that goes something like this:

“So you know Albert Pujols, the great Cardinals, first baseman, two-time MVP? Well, he was in a severe car accident. His life was saved, but there was some severe damage. His left leg is permanently shorter than the right one, so he can no longer run around the bases, he hobbles, or lopes. Due to the fact that his right arm was bent into itself like a Mbius strip, his power is all but gone. He’s lucky to hit the ball out of the infield now. Should the Cardinals play him, or let him go?”

“Let him go, obviously.”

“Okay, say the same thing happened to Derek Jeter?”

“Play him!”

As I’ve been writing, rsiciliano added, “The Yanks owe Jeet too much not to resign him.” They owed Babe Ruth even more, but when he couldn’t help anymore they were all too happy to move him on to the Boston Braves. Gehrig wasn’t even offered an office job. The pruning of the roster during the dynasty years of the 40s and 50s was merciless. Players age. Period. Winning requires youth, particularly young shortstops. In the next day or so I’ll complete a little historical survey on the matter, and you’ll find that you can count the number of teams that won with elderly guys at shortstop can be counted on just a few fingers.

Now, Jeter may have an atypical late-career surge in him. He may show you things on defense you’ve never seen before, or come back from last year’s weak (by his standards) offensive performance. Perhaps in October, 2010, we’re talking about whether the Yankees should re-sign a guy who just hit .330. I hope those things happen, but regardless of whether they do or do not, if you’re a Yankee fan, you have to be willing to discuss the consequences of going forward in 2011 or not. It’s not disloyalty. It’s just as acceptance of the facts.

I close this section with that great quote from G.K. Chesterton: “My country, right or wrong,” is a thing that no patriot would think of saying except in a desperate case. It is like saying, “My mother, drunk or sober.” Or like saying, “Derek Jeter, good or bad.”


AND AS IF I DON’T HAVE BOSTON ACCUSATIONS ENOUGH TO DEAL WITH…

..I’m off to Boston. Those of you in the area who would like to hang out with Kevin Goldstein, Marc Normandin, and myself and talk baseball can join us Tuesday night at 7 p.m. at the Barnes & Noble at Boston University, 660 Beacon Street in Boston. For those New England early birds with televisions, I’ll be on WFXT Fox 25 Tuesday morning at 6:45, and on “Good Morning Live” on the New England Cable News at 8:45 AM. And then I will take a nap, but that will not be broadcast.

31 Comments

YES!! I was quoted on the Pinstripe Bible!!

Oh wait, turns out I was also given credit for a second quote that wasn’t mine.. even so, it’s nice to see my name in print!

Cheers.

Steve

It’s a good point you make and I think fans would be more willing to accept it if there was someone they could consider in the system to replace Jeter. Right now I think most fans look at it as the choice is either Jeter or some guy currently in A ball. (Sadly, looking at the state of the farm system they are probably right) DiMaggio gave way to Mantle and while it would be foolish to expect the Yankees to come up with another Jeter, who exactly is the current alternative? More troubling, why aren’t the Yankees worried about their lack of alternatives for Jeter?

Now, that doesn’t mean I want Jeter back in 2011, but I think he will be. He should be right on the doorstep of 3,000 hits and the thought of him doing that in another uniform will probably prevent the Yankees’ front office from making the unpopular choice.

Enjoy Boston, I believe there is a pretty famous sign on top of that Barnes and Noble you are visiting Tuesday.

Steve,
I 99% agree with you on the Jeter take. That is, he has lost a step, and he may want something like a 3 year contract to start in 2011. So then you are talking about signing someone to play at the age of 40. I doubt he will be the player he once was at that time. At the same time, I do believe his bat will recover this year as he was allegedly playing with a hurt hand all year. That’s not to say the recovery will be enough to make him a worthwhile signing in 2011. Who knows what the next 2 years will bring with him. I think in the end they will sign him and he will end up being a drag on the team, but I am not sure. Jeter, by the way, is my favorite player, and second only to Don Mattingly in my pantheon of favorites. But he won’t be playing until he’s 50, and I understand that at 38 or 39 or 40, he may be closer to the abilities he’ll have at age 50 than those he had when he was 30.

Regardless, what you do bring up is the fact that the Yankees have to understand that Jeter is getting older. If they get 2 seasons of a .330 hitter out of him, resign him, and get 2 more years of it, I’ll be ecstatic. But if they sign him again because they had no other options, didn’t do their diligence, or because they think that he’s better than he is, then I’ll be disappointed.

Thanks for pointing out what other people don’t want to admit. Some day, Mo, Jeter and Posada will be retired. I’m not saying that day should be today or in 2011. But I don’t want them playing on my favorite team when they should be retired. Because either way I won’t get to watch them play in October, but if their on the team, I won’t get to watch any of my other favorites playing in October either.

Steve,

There are worse things that you could be called then a Red Sox Fan! 😉 I hope the weather is better for you when you arrive in town tomorrow. It is miserable today!

Julia
http://werbiefitz.mlblogs.com/

I’m surprised my name wasn’t mentioned as the biggest voice of opposition….Anyway, you said this in the previous article: I can imagine a conversation with these denial-ists that goes something like this:

“So you know Albert Pujols, the great Cardinals, first baseman, two-time MVP? Well, he was in a severe car accident. His life was saved, but there was some severe damage. His left leg is permanently shorter than the right one, so he can no longer run around the bases, he hobbles, or lopes. Due to the fact that his right arm was bent into itself like a Mbius strip, his power is all but gone. He’s lucky to hit the ball out of the infield now. Should the Cardinals play him, or let him go?”

“Let him go, obviously.”

“Okay, say the same thing happened to Derek Jeter?”

“Play him!”
That is not what I said. What I said is that I do not think Jeet is on the way out yet. He’s closer to the end than the beginning, but the Captain has more in him yet. Jeter should end his career in NY, as a Yankee. Lou Gherig did. You compare Jeter to Ruth. But he’s actually remarkably similar to Gehrig. On Pride of the Yankees, when Gehrig was declining, the Yanks wouldn’t even think of taking Gehrig out. He took himself out. I think we should give Jeter that same trust. You forget his intangibles. Jeter isn’t a liability a la Varitek. He will still help the team by ’10. I for one trust Jeter to know when it’s time for him to go.

This discussion makes me wonder if the people who think that Jeter should be able to play SS until he is 45 also deny the existence of paradigm shifts in college or grad school courses.

What is the problem with you people? richinnj-I never said he could play short until 45, I said he should end his career a Yankee, he still offers a lot to the club (which I mentioned in the previous post on Jeet), and that I trust him enough to know when he is more of a liability than an asset and endhis career on his own terms in pinstripes. If the Red Sox can fool themselves that Varitek is more of a liability than an asset, than why can’t I believe that Jeter helps the Yanks more than hurts them, and that I still think he will in ’10? Remember, he was hit in the hand in the middle of the year and still put up good numbers, is it stretch to think that w/o the injury his numbers could be even better? That’s all I’m saying.

Actually, you did quote me when you said, “The Yanks owe Jeet too much not to resign him.” That quote was mine, not rsiciliano’s. What I meant when I said this is that, if Jeter believes he could have a good season, like Gehrig I trust him to know when he will or will not be a good player. Don’t you think we owe Jeet that much? We trusted Gehrig that much, and he made the right choice. May my opinion change after a terrible ’10 season (which I truly don’t see happening)? No, because I beleive Jeter will know when he has liabilities outweigh his assets. If he thinks he could have a bounceback year, I trust him to know that, if the year doesn’t go as planned, he’ll take himself out of the lineup. You’re right-Gehrig and Jeter are very similar, and I believe both will make the right choice.

I agree with your sentiments. Jeter has clearly dropped off. I don’t like admitting that, but it’s true. Jeter is now little more than a singles hitter, and he bounces into more double plays than anyone else on the team. He will be 37 at the end of this contract, and I think the Yanks have shown in recent years that putting the right guys on the field is more important than paying homage to “great Yankees” with exorbitant contracts. Bernie Williams is the prime example. They bought an extra year from an aging center fielder by getting Damon and letting Bernie walk. Bernie wanted four years, but he probably only had one in him. Damon wanted four years and he had two in him.

Jeter is, obviously, a different animal. He never had Bernie’s power, but he was a consummate big spot guy. That is something that has been lacking in a certain other fella that is signed for another 9 years, and his detractors have NEVER let him live it down (even to the extent of bordering on the ridiculous and untrue). I think the Yankees will do right by Jeter, probably by giving him one more year than he could expect. He’ll be on the precipice of 3,000 hits in a Yankee uniform, making him the first. He’s a first ballot Hall of Famer, something Bernie and others like him were not. He’ll probably want 4-5 years, and I think they’ll give him 3.

More to the point…they SHOULD give him 3 years. In his third year, I, for one, will not boo him. He deserves to go out on top.

This, of course, all assumes that his decline is not catastrophic. He can survive as a singles hitter if he starts to loft the ball a little more. He needs to change his approach as his legs start to fail him. No more beating out grounders in the 5-6 hole. At some point, those hits will go away. He needs to be working the gaps between and in front of the outfielders. If nothing changes, and his decline continues at the pace of the last couple years, don’t be too surprised if Jeet walks away, 3,000 hits or not. He loves the game, and he loves the Yankees. He is a man of pride and honor. The Yanks should allow him to make the decision until it is clear that he won’t.

IMHO the Yanks should always put the best possible team on the field. If Jeter isn’t good enough to be a starter, they should let him go. It’s more important whether the team keeps winning than where Jeter gets his 3000th hit.

Too much loyalty to the great Bernie Williams cost the team when his range deteriorated and cost even more when they chose not to sign Carlos Beltran. Let’s not make the same mistake with Jeter.

If Jeter wants to stay with the team once he’s too slow to be a shortstop, then it’s up to him to make himself into an outfielder. I think he could be an outstanding outfielder.

I wish there wasn’t a necessity to write this article… the comments make it seem as if people only saw the headline of the last article without reading it…

Statistical analysis is statistical analysis. If you see a downwards trend, nobody in their right mind wouldn’t bail on the situation.

Besides, the Yankees are in no way going to get rid of Jeter / move Jeter out of SS, not because of Jeter’s abilities or “leadership,” but because they have no legitimate replacement. If you told Yankee fans that they drafted a stud shortstop early in the draft, who projected to be the next Reyes or Hanley Ramirez, I doubt so many people would be protecting DJ (no matter how much I like Jeter)

I am not a statistician. I am a Yankee fan. Fan derives from the word fanatic. I am not “a what have you done for me lately type of guy”. I much prefer the winning Yankee teams of 96 and 98, where the word was team and not an attempt at getting an all star at every position. I prefer Brosius to Arod, Cone to Clemens and O Neil to any current Yankee outfielder. As a teacher and coach, I like to teach that Winning is not everything. It is how you play the game, and nobody plays the game as it should be played as Derek Jeter does. I do understand that the Yankee belief that anything less than a world series win is not enough.
I do not agree with that belief. My apologies to you who gave me an entertaining and informative afternoon. Calling someone who writes the Pinstripe Bible a Red Sock or a Met is wrong. I am sorry. I do not believe in America right or wrong or Derek Jeter right or wrong or anything right or wrong. I believe in the give and take of discussion and the freedom to do so. You are a statistician, I am a sentimentalist. We fundamentally disagree. I think Joe Torre should be honored for what he did as a Yankee and Derek Jeter should retire as a Yankee. If one of those happens in my lifetime. It would be miraculous. As they said in the play “Damn Yankees”, You got to have heart. Let us agree to disagree. Thank you for a challenging discussion.

Steve,
As a lifelong Yankee fan, even though never having lived there, at 61 now I have seen a lot of Yankees come and go. It seems to me that the majority of the great ones know when it is time to retire. Believe me Derek Jeter will be mentioned in the same breath as The Babe, Iron Horse, Yankee Clipper, Chairman of the Board, Yogi, The Mick and the rest. Mr November is the consumate Yankee. He is the face of the greatest sports organization in history and will be for years to come. He will know when it is time to walk away. It will be painful but he can & will do it. He will always be in our hearts. God Bless him for the thrills he has given us over the years. I think there may be 1 or 2 more rings in it for him also.

By the way, just because the Yanks shipped Ruth to the Braves and didn’t offer Gehrig an office job doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have. What they did to Ruth wasn’t right, and Gehrig deserved to at least be made an offer for an office job. Just because the old Yanks did it doesn’t make it the right thing to do.

letsgoyankees

As I posted on another thread, if Jeter can return to being a 120ish OPS+ hitter (his OPS+ was 102 in 2008), and he is willing to play the OF, the Yankees can extend his contract for two years following the 2010 season. If not, and he continues to be average offensively and below average defensively at SS, he will be hurting the team. So to you point that you “trust him enough to know when he is more of a liability than an asset,” if so, he should have already moved from the SS position. Granted he was hurt after Cabrera hit him, and he may well bounce back offensively, but defensively, not so much. I would have liked the Yankees to sign Orlando Cabrera and move Jeter to the OF this season.

Steve, I wouldn’t be too focused on what the Jeter fans say. They are a vocal bunch, but they don’t represent the thinking of all, or most, or the overwhelming majority of Yankee fans, who do understand that the sun will set on the land called Jeter.

The question(s) is how soon, how fast and how do the Yankees manage his playing time during his decline. I’m pretty sure the Yankees are thinking about this very question, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one option they’re considering is moving him into a full-time, multi-position role, perhaps as soon as next year, when there will be an opening in LF. A rotation between LF, DH and some SS can still get him plenty of ABs as long as he’s still productive, and then can be reduced as his production fades as he ages, while also allowing the Yankees to get **** who can move to his left sooner rather than later.

Jeter is just now entering what could be the most interesting point in his career, a point that’s going to determine just how great history views him. Unless a needle leaking Primobolan is found in Jeter’s locker, he’s going into the HOF, so his history and greatness on one level is secure. Yet he has a chance to truly elevate his reputation several more levels.

During much of Jeter’s career, there have been these “Bill Jamesian” projections on how many hits Jeter may get in his career, noting at various points that he was ahead, tied, or close to where Pete Rose was at similar points in his career. It’s a nonsense stat, since Rose, or Aaron, or any player who accumulates great “counting stats,” has to keep producing well into his mid-to-late 30s and early 40s, which is a point when most players have long since started to fade, or are gone from the game. Think of Bernie Williams, whose last great season was at 33. That’s the norm, not the exception. Granted, Bernie went from .330 to .260 in one season, and that might be a bit extreme, but the age when he began his fade is pretty much right on target, at least during the pre-steriod era.

Jeter is right now at that point in his career where it would be normal for him to slowly fade, or even rapidly fall off from his past production. We might have witnessed the start of that decline last year. Yet he’s also at that point where we might be witness to something really great, where we’re not counting the days watching an aging Jeter limp toward 3,000 hits, but a still vibrant player marching in toward 3,500, or 3,800 or even 4,000 hits.

Rose during his age-33 season collapsed to .284 from the prior year’s .338. I’m sure many thought, or at least feared, that age was catching up with Charlie Hustle. Wrong. He bounced right back and continued to hit at Rosian levels for six of the next seven seasons. That strong mid/late-30s drive is what enabled Rose to set the all-time hit record and elevated Rose to a new level.

It’s very unlikely Jeter will play until he’s 45 like Rose (and Rose really would have been forced retired probably by 42 if not for the hit record he was chasing), but he might be productive thoughtout his 30s. I’m looking forward to finding out, and I’m hoping that at the end of 2010 the Yankees are faced with resigning a player who just hit .330.

That said, if they’re faced with a .275 hitter, then tough decisions will have to be made.

Steve’s last point is, again, the reason that a lot of the emotion attending this discussion isn’t warranted. A lot of folks believe that Jeter will age better than most, and still be productive beyond 2010. If so, the whole discussion is moot. The main thing is that the Yankees organization has to be prepared for the alternative scenario, which is that Jeter slows too much to be a valuable player after 2010. Hope and pray for the best, but prepare for the worst. If the Yanks didn’t follow that philosophy, they’d be the Royals. Or, more accurately, the late-80’s/early 90’s Yanks, who overpaid for players beyond their primes on a routine basis.

richinnj-I disagree, too that Jeet is hurting us by playing defensively at short. Maybe he’s slowing down a bit, but there’s still nobody there I want more with the bases loaded and a shot to the hole. I trust Jeter, both to make the big catch or hit and to know when it’s time to move on.

By the way, 300 is above avg. offensively.

Wow. I see I’ve come late to this great party/debate. So I’ll just say that I think Jeter will rebound from last year and have an even better season; that the Yankees don’t have to deal with his contract right this minute and have time to gauge whether his skills have, indeed, eroded; that Jeter loves the Yankees, is the captain of the Yankees, is the face of the Yankees and, therefore, doesn’t want to fail the Yankees; that he, like all great players that have been mentioned here, will know when it’s time to hang it up. No need to panic. I honestly believe this is one of those situations that will work out to everybody’s advantage.

http://janeheller.mlblogs.com

I would take Jeter on his worst day, over anyone else on their best day (Barring anyone who is not alive anymore for obvious reason).

Leave Jeter’s career to Jeter, and worry about your own.

letsgoyankees

As Steve said, you are putting Jeter ahead of the team, which is never a good idea.

He can’t get to many balls up the middle, and it’s hard for him to get to balls in the hole.

Regarding .300: Do you really think that AVG is a better measure of production than OPS or OPS+?

It’s past time.

It’s always amusing when the media brings up Jeter’s age . . . “HE’S GETTING UP THERE” . . . “HOW MUCH TIME DOES HE HAVE LEFT.” While never mentioning A-Rod’s age. A-Rod is just ONE YEAR YOUNGER than Jeter. Apparently a “formerly juiced” home run hitter has staying power. How old will A-Rod be at the end of his blockbuster contract. Certainly the man who is the face of the Yankees (Jeter) deserves as much if not more than a self absorbed (carpetbagger?)

First off Steve, I attended your discussion last night in Boston and it was a lot of fun and very informative. I think that Jeter should def. be resigned after his current contract expires. But I think it’s got to come with some concession on his part. Hopefully, he’ll be able to recognize that he can’t be a 37 year old short stop and command $15-20 million a year. He may have to be willing to sign for less and have money built into his contract based on milestones. But I have to agree with those that say he has to be resigned. Should Jeter get to 3,000 hits it can’t come in a Royals uniform. I know I know, that’s putting Jeter before the team. But Jeter is one of those rare players who you identify with one team (in the vein of Ripken and the Orioles). You don’t see that often these days. I know the arguements on Jeter, he’s not good to his left yada yada yada. But Jeter is a playmaker, he excels in otherways to make up for the small areas where he may hamper the team and I don’t see that going away. I mean he’s only two years removed from winning 3 straight gold gloves, his fielding percentage is better now then it was when he was 26. If anything the times he hurts the team the most is when he’s to stubborn to take himself out of the line-up after being hurt (i.e. after Cabrera plunked him on the hand). But overall I think this year will be a telling year for Jeter. His average has dropped over 40 points over the past two seasons (and he still hits at or over .300). So I am concerned to see if that pattern continues. But the Yankees without Jeter is just not natural……….then again, I’m very very very very very biased.

richinnj-I am not putting Jeter ahead of the team. I am saying that I trust Jeter enough to know when he’ll still be an asset to the team. Keeping Jeter would help the Yankees. And by the way-avg. may not be a more telling thing than ops. or ops+ but I believe Jeter was one of our best clutch hitters last year (hitters with runners in scoring position) and again, with the bases loaded and a shot to the hole, I want nobody there more than Derek Jeter.

By the way, mjwyman-I’m glad you’re on my side of the debate, but I don’t think he was hurting the team after refusing to get out when he got plunked. If Jeter had left, the already struggling Yankees’ morale would have dropped even further. Jeter is the Captain, and I was impressed when he was gutting out games w/o being 100% for the sake of his team.

letsgoyankees

Unlike Steve, I am not opposed to keeping him (as long as his ability to hit with SLG returns), just not at SS. The reason I don’t “trust” him is that he should have vacated the position several years ago. The Yankees have needed a CFer,; Jeter is great going back on flyballs; CF is hallowed ground in Yankee history. Yet somehow he thinks he thinks it’s fine for “past a diving Jeter’ to be his mantra. That’s just wrong.

letsgoyanks- I should clarify what I meant when he said he hurt the team by staying in there after getting hit on the hand. I agree that Jeter going on the DL def hurts morale. But if I’m not mistaken he was 4 for 40 after getting hit, allowing himself to be rested for a few games might have been the route to go. Never the less, we agree that Jeter should be re-signed after his contract expires and that’s the important thing! It would just kill me in general to watch Jeter play for another team. If that’s putting someone ahead of the team, so be it.

Steven – Always enjoy reading your stuff. Here’s my take. It’s not disloyal to the Yankees, or Jeter for fans to want him there forever. He might be the most beloved Yankee ever and he embodies everything that it is to be a true professional baseball player and role model – not just a Yankee. And as a lifelong Yankee fan with a whole giant family of Yankees fans I wish he’d be there forever too. But I believe the most important thing to Jeter is winning. When he knows he can not contribute to the team on a winning level be it at any position, i believe he will bow out gracefully. He is a class act and I know it’s difficult to fight that competitive spirit, but he is such a team player he will know what to do and when to do it.

Right now the Yanks have bigger fish to fry, w/A-Rod hurt. I hope to God he’ll be all right.

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